Fluctuations in Monthly Production (Monte Carlo)

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Last updated: Nov 16, 2022
2 min read

Monte Carlo Simulations can be used to investigate the effect of a variable monthly energy production on the most important performance indicators. The most important performance indicators are computed for a large number of possible production sequences. Each monthly production is assumed to deviate from the mean value by a random amount. The probability of the deviations is equally distributed in a user-defined interval (e.g. plus/minus 10% of the mean value, see 'Maximum deviation from mean'). This implies that every value for the production in this interval is equally probable. The outcome of all the simulations is shown in histograms. Click on the 'Start Monte Carlo Simulation' to start the Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation can be stopped and resumed without losing the computed values by clicking on the corresponding buttons. Note that the computed values are lost as soon as you click on 'Reset' or navigate away from the Monte Carlo tab. 

How do you use Monte Carlo Simulations?

  1. Create or open a 'Simulation' project and go to the 'Monte Carlo' tab

  2. Enter the 'Number of runs'. This is the number of simulations run after a click on 'Start Monte Carlo simulations' or 'Resume Monte Carlo simulations'. You find the number of completed simulations below ('Number of completed simulations').

  3. Enter the 'Maximum deviation from mean'. This is the maximum random deviation of the monthly production from the average monthly production. The average monthly production corresponds to the monthly production for the case P50, given in percent of the average monthly production.

     

  4. Click on 'Run Monte Carlo Simulation'.

  5. You can now find return histograms below for the Project, Equity and payout IRR. These histograms change continuously with every completed run.

     

     

  6. The simulation can be stopped and resumed without losing the computed values by clicking on the corresponding buttons. Note that the computed values are lost as soon as you click on 'Reset' or navigate away from the Monte Carlo tab